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SCALE Report

SCALE Healthcare 2021 Predictions

An excerpt of the full report is included below.  Download the PDF for our full list of predictions for over 25 clinical specialties and industry-wide forecast.

Macro Trend: More COVID

SCALE Forecasts

Plenty of residual headwinds in 2021

Practice Management Supporting Arguments

  • Weakened healthcare company balance sheets across the board
  • More patient disruption in 2021 as virus continues to flare up
  • More operational disruption as “what is safe” continues to involve new standards of care
  • Making sense of 2020? We will have time in 2021 to revisit lessons learned and changes that need to be made henceforth
  • Anticipate lingering confusion as to the effectiveness of the vaccine against mutations
  • Pent up demand – The US Census Bureau “Pulse Survey” (weekly survey of 1 million people) still pegs the number of people “delaying care” at around 35% across the country. In 2021, there should be a lot more patients looking to move forward on a wide variety of electives as well as a higher number of urgent procedures due to preventative care and/or delays.
  • Healthcare tied to national security – what new regulations, reporting requirements and precautionary protocols will be implemented? What will be the resulting cost and administrative burden of any such measures?

Macro Trend: To Private Equity or Not?

SCALE Forecasts

Public media attention slowly but noticeably returns to the question of PE in healthcare

Practice Management - Supporting Arguments

  • PE backed platforms continue to grow in scale primarily through acquisitions – founding platforms from the investment wave over the past several years are increasingly moving across state lines
  • Outsized returns continue to generally drive home the message that PE can add real value in the healthcare services segment
  • The question will be whether the valuations paid over the past 12-36 months were proven right or not
  • The failed or under-whelming investments will further drive home the message that more expertise is required beyond the standard playbook of finding the right CEO and independent board advisors
  • Continuation of the broken auctions as ‘not ready for primetime’ platforms continue try to sell themselves in a frothy market
  • PE backed platforms that are unable to meet debt covenants ultimately ab- sorbed by their lenders
  • Growing list of publicly traded platforms brings an increased level of attention and performance transparency to the market

For the full PDF version, please visit our SCALE Education subscription page.

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